Section 024 · Chapter 4, Statistical Tests for AI Quality

Statistical Significance vs. Practical Significance

A difference can be statistically credible and still too small to matter. Confidence Engineers need to explain both sides.

confidence engineerstatistical significance practical significance

What to do

  1. Define runnable checks that exercise confidence engineer and statistical significance practical significance.
  2. Set acceptable outcomes and blocker failures for confidence engineer and statistical significance practical significance before running the evaluation.
  3. Run representative cases for confidence engineer and statistical significance practical significance and preserve the failures that would change the decision.

Evidence to preserve

  • Preserve the inputs, versions, configurations, raw outcomes, and results for confidence engineer, statistical significance practical significance needed to reproduce work on Statistical Significance vs. Practical Significance.
  • Report results for confidence engineer, statistical significance practical significance by relevant slice, separate blocker failures from averages, state uncertainty and blind spots, and connect the result to a release decision.

Expert note

In production work, define the minimum meaningful effect before testing. If the team only cares about improvements of at least 0.3 points or a 20% reduction in policy failures, say so before looking at the data.

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Jason Arbon. "Statistical Significance vs. Practical Significance." Testing AI Knowledge Edition, section 24.

https://jarbon.ai/testing-ai/knowledge/ch024-statistical-significance-practical-significance.html

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