Section 018 · Chapter 3, Sampling and Uncertainty
Confidence Intervals: Saying "About" Like a Professional
Confidence intervals help Confidence Engineers report estimates as ranges instead of pretending sample results are exact truth.
confidence intervalconfidence engineerconfidence intervals saying about professional
What to do
- Use this when each case gets a numeric score: helpfulness from 0-10, answer quality from 0-10, code-review quality from 0-10, or a combined eval score.
- Do not substitute visual overlap between two separate marginal 95% intervals for this calculation.
- Version B may be better.
Evidence to preserve
- Preserve the inputs, versions, configurations, raw outcomes, and results for confidence interval, confidence engineer, confidence intervals saying about professional needed to reproduce work on Confidence Intervals: Saying "About" Like a Professional.
- Report results for confidence interval, confidence engineer, confidence intervals saying about professional by relevant slice, separate blocker failures from averages, state uncertainty and blind spots, and connect the result to a release decision.
Expert note
Choose interval methods that match the metric. A pass rate is a proportion and may use Wilson or exact binomial intervals. An average score often uses a t-based or bootstrap interval, especially when the score distribution is not normal.
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Cite this page
Jason Arbon. "Confidence Intervals: Saying "About" Like a Professional." Testing AI Knowledge Edition, section 18.
https://jarbon.ai/testing-ai/knowledge/ch018-confidence-intervals-saying-about-professional.html